Week 5 will end with a game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Baltimore Ravens playing Monday Night Football. The game has a Predicted Score of 12.0 Colts – 32.4 Ravens. The numbers predict Baltimore will Win, Cover the Spread, and the Total will go Under. The consensus spread is 7 and the consensus total is 46 points.
Now, it’s time to figure out your game narrative. I personally do not focus on the Over/Under in a game as I like to look at the opportunity. That means that I focus on Targets and Attempts. So if I use the Odd Shark Numbers to build my narrative then I expect the Colts to lose the game which means they will be playing from behind. This also means that the Ravens will be ahead and probably want to slow down the pace and hold onto the ball longer.
Colts – Focus on pass catchers and possibly the Quarterback but also keep in mind that if the opposing QB runs you are looking at 6 points vs 4 points for the passing TD so it may be a good idea to using the running QB instead. Key in on your most targeted WR and the RB with the most rushing attempts, more attempts and targets mean a higher probability of scoring. Taylor has 14.5 rushing attempts on average while Hines has 4.5 attempts per game but, they both average .3 TD per game so if you need a cheaper option then that is something to think about. Pittman has the most receiving targets but Zach Pascal has a .8 TD per game average while Mo Alie-Cox averages .5 TD per game. This gives you a pool of players to start with on the Colts’ side of the ball.
Carson Wentz if you want to correlate a WR and a QB
Ravens – This is where it gets interesting. We are going to say that if they win they will want to run the ball but they are already a run-heavy team as well as a team with a running QB. Latavius Murray is averaging 11 rushing attempts per game and Sammy Watkins is averaging 7 targets per game while Marquise Brown averages 7. The Colts Defense is currently a top 10 Defense so you are not counting on the Raven’s RB to necessarily score as much as you are looking at him to have more attempts. Now we have our second pool of players.
Lamar Jackson because he’s Lamar Jackson.
Now that we have some players to throw in a lineup it’s time to build your lineups. While I do not give out lineups I will give out my core plays each week to build a team around tonight they are:
I think the game actually goes over and that the Ravens win so they will run the ball more than usual with Murray, Jackson is going to run regardless and Carson is going to have to throw a lot. The core plays also don’t require the game to go over I just threw that in there.
That’s All Y’all. Good Luck Tonight!
*All stats come from Yahoo Fantasy.
*All odds and lines come from Odd Shark.